da luck： Informed estimates suggest that punters around the world may have stakedwell over US$70 million on the result of the Oval Test – and thus the series -beginning today
Prakash Gosavi20-Aug-2009
‘Bookmakers such as Ladbrokes and William Hill used to stop taking bets after the toss. But once they discovered how bookies actually made more money after matches had begun, they too embraced the system’•AFP
The Ashes decider at The Oval may well be the most eagerly anticipatedcontest in recent memory, for fans, media and the players themselves. Butthe fifth Test will have a lot more riding on it than just the destinationof the famous urn or bragging rights for the next couple of years.Informed estimates suggest that punters around the world may have stakedwell over US$70 million on the result of the Test – and thus the series -beginning today.The sheer volume of money at stake would also explain why an Australian player was approached by a bookie after the Lord’s Test, as revealed by Cricinfo.Betfair, the leading P2P (person to person) betting exchange based in theUK, had already matched bets worth US$4.8 million by Wednesday afternoon.Given that Betfair generally accounts for nearly half of the total volume logged inthe UK, the total betting on the winner of the Ashes series will farexceed the figure of US$10 million by the time the first ball is bowled atthe Oval. And though cricket may not yet have taken off on the continent,betting on it is surprisingly energetic, with approximately US$3 millionplaced on the result.However, these figures are dwarfed by those coming out of the illegal betting market in India, as befits the financial centre of the game. It is estimated that each of the preceding four Ashes Tests has seen between US$30 million and US$41 million (Rs 150-200 crore) wagered on the result. For the series win (called ‘cup betting’ in India), those figures increaseto between US$50-61 million (Rs 250-300 crore). Indianbookies, like their English counterparts, have sensed the series shift inmomentum towards Australia; on Wednesday afternoon, the odds on Australiawinning at The Oval on the Indian market were 2.40, England winning it 4to 1 and a draw at 1.25. Betfair (on Thursday, hours before the start),offered odds of an Australian win at 2.42, England 5.2 and a draw 2.5.These amounts are restricted only to match and series winner, however, andonce the Test begins much more will be wagered. For most in India, thepopular bets are on the result, and about 95% of the estimated 1.5 millionregular punters place their money on this. However, some bookies and verybig punters bet huge amounts between themselves on what is called “fancysauda”. This can be on anything, from estimating innings scores, topscorers or wicket-takers and staking from Rs 100-10,000 per runagainst the difference in team totals. It can take in small details, suchas who will bowl the next over from which end and how many runs will bescored in an over, or off the next delivery. Putting a realistic figure onthese transactions is difficult and though there are very few puntersinvolved in this, the stakes can often be very high.Bookmakers, such as Ladbrokes and William Hill, used to stop taking betsafter the toss in any match. But once they discovered how bookies from thesubcontinent actually made more money after matches had begun, on fancysauda, they too embraced the system. Thus ‘In Play’ betting – placing betswhen the Test begins, where odds are re-worked with every ball bowled,every run scored – now accounts for the largest chunk of betting on anycontest.Though the figures for the last Test seem impressive, the decider isactually thought to be a low-volume contest in India. There are tworeasons for this. One, this is a decider, so the winner (if it does notend in a draw) of this Test and the series is going to be the same, andsince there are bets already riding on the series winner category, it doesnot make much sense for them to increase the ante. Two, New Zealand’sseries with Sri Lanka has diverted the hearts and wallets of punters notonly in the subcontinent, but also to an extent in Europe, where bets overUS$5 million had already been placed by the second day of the Test. InIndia, sources estimate that nearly US$80 million (Rs400 crore) arealready placed on the first Test, and nearly US$60 million (Rs300 crore)on the series winner.